2009 LBJ Winner????OK, so I screwed the pooch bailing on Steve Elliott as one of my trainers before the Simcoe, costing myself two notches in the standings by falling from 6th to 8th without the 50 points I would have received. I was also less than thrilled when my brainstorm choice of Vertical Horizon came second after Jody Jamieson insisted on the lead with an inferior horse. That forced Campbell to tuck back in when JJ repelled his backstretch move...then deuce pop on the last turn, only to have JJ let the winner up the rail. I call bullshit. So, after all that, I am 134 points off the lead with the Jug to come...should be in 5th place, 59 points behind. I'm bitter...it looks grim.
Here is my plan for the Jug:
I think Vintage Master is the best horse. I have him, Takter & Dube. So does everybody else, I assume. He drew the four in the same heat as Well Said, who drew post eight. I am taking a stand against Well Said, leaving him out of my five allowed picks, as the only chance I see to win is to hope for some unlikely results.
My other trainer, Tracy Brainard, has two entered. If I Can Dream from post ten in the first division, away from VM & WS. She has named Tetrick, who I dropped in the last draft for Dube. Shoulda kept TT and dropped Pierce and just been done with Well Said, but, you know how it is. So, I'll activate IICD, Mr Wiggles, who looks tired but should relish the half, and Keep It Real, fresh horse, for the first division. I will not activate River Shark, though I'd kind of like to have him, and just hope his draw in the 10 horse field keeps him out of the hunt. He was also scratched from an overnight on Saturday, raising more questions and Sabatelli is listed as trainer when I had hoped he'd go back to the Brainard/Marks barn for the Jug.
For the second division I have Vintage Master activated. My other options are Chasin Racin (just OK in an overnight at Chester on Friday), Vertical Horizon, who I took for the above mentioned Simcoe but moves to Brainard/Marks for this one, and Well Said. I'm in a lose/lose here because Vertical Horizon can't make me a hero with VM in the race and me having Takter & Dube. Still, I have to take him, hoping he can pull the upset as not everyone has him, I'm sure.
In review, here's what I need to happen to have a chance at the big prize:
First Division: If I Can Dream to win from post 10, earning me 50 horse and 50 trainer points. Keep It Real and Mr Wiggles to run second and third in any order. Total gain= 137 points
Second Division: Vintage Master to win, 50 horse, 50 driver and 50 trainer points, Vertical Horizon second for a total of 175 points. Well Said eliminated.
Second Heat: Here I need some things to happen. Ideally, Brainard will replace Jimmy Morrill, who inexplicably chooses Doubleshotascotch in this heat, with Pierce on Vertical Horizon. He wins, gaining me the 150 point maximum and requiring a race-off. Vintage Master, Keep It Real, If I Can Dream and Mr Wiggles complete the top five finishers, and I get another 50 points from that.
In the Race-off, why can't Vertical Horizon win? I don't even care who drives, cause for the race winner I will get 250 points and the trainer / driver points are eliminated. It seems reasonable to me! You got a problem with that?
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